by Dan Shueftan

Subversive, violent elements in the region are counting on the new US administration to reward them for what the Trump administration punished them for.

It's too early to assess the effect the policies of the Biden administration will have on Israel's status. Appointments for secretary of state and national security advisor will make things a little clearer. The extent of the Republican majority in the Senate will also affect the president's freedom of action. It's hard to assess how determined the new administration is to focus on truly urgent issues for America, such as the public health and economic crisis and global competition with China.

It's already clear that the new administration will support Israel's strategic needs less than its predecessor. Only the spokespeople of the sparse far Left in Israel and those with progressive tendencies in the US present a dichotomy between Israel's needs and "the insanity of Netanyahu and his radical right-wing government." The centrist stream in Israel recognized his contribution to the region. Trump also had the support of 62% of those who define themselves as "center" in Israel, whereas only 16% supported Joe Biden. Even among the remains of the Left, support was evenly split at 40%. US President Donald Trump weakened Iran, bit into the Palestinians' ability to undermine things, and neutralized the damages Europe does, as well as effectively striking at the legitimacy of international organizations and – mainly – strengthening the Israeli-Arab coalition against Iran and Turkey. His notable mistake in the region, accepting Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's policies, is dwarfed by everything else. All these are part of the Israeli consensus, not "right-wing" issues.

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Biden and his close associates are less naïve and less obsessive than former US President Barack Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry were, but the Democrats are obligated to policies in key areas that hurt Israel – mostly a return to a policy of pacifying Iran, if in a softer version, and a focus on the placating the Palestinians despite any lack of strategic rationale for doing so.

We can also see this in the cold shoulder to US allies in the region over human rights abuses and the legitimacy they give to international organization that pervert the system of democratic values to persecute Israel. This is a policy that has reservations about the harsh government of Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi, for example, and seeks to punish Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman for the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul, while ignoring the alternatives to their government. In Egypt, this means putting the most dangerous group in the region in power: the Muslim Brotherhood, which already received legitimacy and encouragement from Obama.

The central stream in the Democratic Party – Biden, Chuck Schumer, and Nancy Pelosi – can be expected to support him despite his support for Israel, but the progressive camp includes many whose stance is a hostile one. Biden was elected the candidate to defeat Trump, but the radicals hold growing sway in his party.

Even if the harm caused by these approaches is mitigated, expectations from the new administration could encourage violent radicalization and political violence between Israel's active political opponents. Iran has good reason to assume that a return to Obama's pacification tactics will rescue it from its economic troubles, ignoring its subversive activities in the Middle East, its threats to Israel, and an upgrade of its ballistic missile capabilities. Iran also knows that there will be much less American support for Israel's stringent targeted killing methods, and that the US could reverse direction entirely if Iran chooses to carry out a major response.

All the radicals will use bloodshed and twisted media reports to try and force the new administration to make the Middle East its top priority, at the expense of what is really important: health, the economy, and China. Trump punished them for subversion and violence; they assume that Biden will reward them for it.

The full article is available on Israel Hayom

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