by Dan Schueftan

Under Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey – once modern and moderate – is destabilizing the entire region and poses a threat to Europe as well as the US.

Bernard Lewis, the preeminent Middle East researcher of the past few generations, said after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan rose to power that Iran could turn into Turkey, and Turkey might morph into Iran. Lewis meant that after the mullah regime was ousted, Iran might fulfil the hope for moderation and contribution that were once hung on Turkey, whereas Erdogan could drive the modern and moderate Turkey he inherited into destructive radicalism in the style of the Islamic Revolution. For now, the threat from Ankara is materializing, but not the hopes for Tehran.

In addition to the disaster he has brought down on his own country, Erdogan's megalomaniac policies have outraged his neighbors in the Fertile Crescent, the Arabia Peninsula, and the Mediterranean Basin. The damage he is causing is being discovered in Europe. His policy is hurting American and Israeli interests. Hamas, Qatar, Azerbaijan, and the government of Fayez al-Sarraj in Tripoli are his only allies.

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In Europe, he poses a multifaceted threat. The NATO alliance was established and destroyed by democratic nations to address the Soviet (now the Russian) danger. Turkey was a little unusual, but gradually developed democratic characteristics and NATO could depend on its large military for its needs. Recently, we are seeing a stark contrast between the democratic characteristics of NATO members and Turkey's regime of oppression. Erdogan's close ties with Russia, and acquisition of an air defense system that poses a threat to NATO aircraft testify to his intentions. Erdogan's steps to eradicate government functionaries and weaken Turkey's armed forces erode its value as a military asset. His policy is ruining Turkey's credibility; it is now a Trojan horse in NATO.

Erdogan isn't even trying to hide the threat to European society and politics in two sensitive areas: enclaves of Turks and refugees. He is blatantly encouraging a process of radicalization among the million Turks who have emigrated to Europe since the 1970s, mainly to Germany. That radicalization demands that they remain loyal to Turkey and their Islamic culture, at the expense of their citizenship and process of integrating into their new home countries. In the fall of 2015 Erdogan encouraged a wave of about a million refugees to Europe, mostly from Syria, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. Given the Europeans' helplessness in addressing the matter, he struck a "protection" deal with German Chancellor Angela Merkel – he would stop the influx of refugees for a billion euros. Since then, he has been waving his ability to reopen the dam as a way of extorting benefits and money from the frightened Europeans.

The danger he poses to American interests is clear, and it's hard to understand why President Trump accepts his outrageous behavior. The damage he has done to NATO hurts the US, too. Weakening European society through radicalized Muslim citizens and a flood of refugees also hurts Europe's ability to stand up to Russia and bolsters their already-strong tendency for pacification. Erdogan's battle against the Kurds hurts the US' trusted allies in Syrian and Iraq and sends a message to local forces that the Americans cannot be depended upon. We also need to add the threats the Muslim Brotherhood – with his encouragement – poses to pro-American governments in Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the Persian Gulf, and Jordan, and his hostile policy toward Israel. Nor does the US want Turkish hegemony in the Mediterranean Sea. The only American punishment – a refusal to sell him F-35 aircraft because he bought a missile system from the Russians – is no deterrent.

Israel has a long list of problems with the anti-Semitic megalomaniac from Ankara. He supports Hamas, he tried to but the maritime weapons blockage on the Gaza Strip, and allows top terrorist Hassan al-Arouri to operate in his country under a Turkish passport. He threatens Turkey's most important Arab allies, wages a pan-Islamic war against Israel in Jerusalem and sends his agents to fight it. In the Mediterranean, he threatens Israel's economic assets as well as its allies.

Erdogan is hated and isolated. Turkey is vulnerable mostly in the economic sector. About a month ago, Moody's lowered Turkey's credit rating to B2, the lowest in the 30 years it has been measured, and five steps below the rank it needs to attract investment. Aside from his nationalist incitement and oppressive measures, Erdogan is holding on because the economic situation remains tolerable. This is where he can be reined in, but for that to happen, we need the Americans to take the lead. Trump hasn't suggested it yet and Joe Biden will almost certainly not want anything to do with it.

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